In the college football universe, Halloween basically means two things: It’s the anniversary of the greatest punt return of all time (Billy Cannon’s exhausted romp against Ole Miss, now 63 years ago), and it’s the last day until November starts.
The first two months of a given season can be an absolute blast — this one certainly has been — but a vast majority of what we end up remembering happens in November.
Michael Crabtree beating Texas in 2008 happened on Nov. 1. Clint Stoerner’s fumble, which cleared the way for Tennessee’s 1998 title bid, happened on Nov. 14. The 1971 Nebraska-Oklahoma game of the century (replete with the second-best punt return ever) happened on Nov. 25. The Kick Six happened on Nov. 30, 2013. Division titles are decided in November. Heismans are (unofficially) clinched in November. Weeknight MACtion happens in November.
We’ve absorbed everything that happened over the first nine Saturdays of a delightful season, and now we get to find out what it all means. As I try to do each season, let’s take stock of where things stand. Here are the stakes at hand — national title, conference races, Heisman and anything else noteworthy — as we head into the greatest month on the college football calendar.
Jump to:
Conference races | Who’s going bowling?
Heisman of the week | Favorite games
Where the national title race stands
Although the first College Football Playoff rankings come out Tuesday, there are a number of huge games lined up for the coming weeks, so, as always, the initial rankings matter only so much. To get the firmest look at the overall title chase, let’s consult ESPN’s Allstate Playoff Predictor. Here’s which teams it thinks are most likely to be in the top four when it matters.
Tier 1 (greater than 85% chance of reaching the playoffs): Ohio State (85.9%)
Ohio State cleared a pretty big hurdle by winning at Penn State on Saturday. The Buckeyes will be favored in every remaining game, including Michigan’s visit to Columbus on Nov. 26 and a hypothetical Big Ten championship game. In theory, they might have some paths to the top four even if they lose to an unbeaten and dominant Michigan, but they would need to catch quite a few breaks in that instance.
Tier 2 (50-70% chance, rounded): Georgia (69.9%), Tennessee (60.7%), Alabama (51.0%), Clemson (50.8%), Michigan (49.9%)
The winner of this coming weekend’s Georgia-Tennessee game will likely join Ohio State in the top tier here, but these odds suggest that the loser will still have a pretty strong top-four case as well. And while Clemson has not played at the standard of the other teams in this tier, the Tigers are in if they keep winning, and odds suggest that’s pretty likely.
Tier 3 (1-11% chance, rounded): TCU (10.5%), Oregon (7.7%), USC (7.4%), Utah (2.0%), Ole Miss (1.7%), LSU (1.1%), UCLA (0.5%)
TCU presumably gets dinged for an iffy nonconference schedule and a lack of dominance — the Horned Frogs are 18th in game control at the moment, below even Clemson. They obviously get in if they win out, but with trips to Texas and Baylor remaining, plus a hypothetical Big 12 championship game against another evenly matched team, going 13-0 will be rough.
ESPN’s Heather Dinich laid out the big questions facing the playoff committee as it preps for the initial rankings release. But here are a few things I’ll be trying to glean Tuesday night.
1. Who’s No. 1? Duh. Obviously we won’t have to work too hard to figure that one out. But we will still learn something about the committee’s general thought process. Ohio State is No. 1 in both SP+ and FPI (which the CFP committee proudly ignores), and my résumé SP+ rating — an attempt to look at actual results and how you’ve performed as opposed to who you’ve played — places the Buckeyes at the top as well. If sheer, week-to-week quality matters, you might see either the Buckeyes or AP’s No. 1 team, Georgia, atop the list. But ESPN’s Stats & Information Group ranks Tennessee first in both strength of record and its game control metric. Plus Michigan handled Penn State much more easily than Ohio State did. Will any of that matter?
My gut says Tennessee will start out No. 1, although it obviously doesn’t matter much with UT-Georgia coming up in just a few days.
2. How much does the committee respect the Big 12? In terms of average SP+ ratings, the Big 12 is second to only the SEC this season. It currently boasts six of the top 19 teams in the country and features only one team ranked worse than 52nd. There are no weekends off in the conference schedule, as proved by the fact that TCU has beaten three teams in the SP+ top 20 in the past five games. (The Frogs beat two of those teams by double digits, too.) But humans care a lot more about raw records than computers do, and because of the league’s cannibalistic nature, TCU is the only Big 12 team with fewer than two losses and one of only three conference teams ranked in the AP Top 25.
TCU is probably the weakest of the six remaining unbeatens, and it wouldn’t be an injustice if the Frogs ranked as low as seventh — behind the other five unbeatens and Alabama — Tuesday night. But do they rank behind Oregon too? What about a one-loss SEC team like Ole Miss? And where do Kansas State and Oklahoma State rank? This will tell us whether the committee is treating the conference properly overall. It will also tell what kind of chance a TCU at 12-1 would have of reaching the top four.
3. Along those same lines, how much does the committee respect the Big Ten? Are both Tennessee and Georgia ahead of Ohio State? Is Alabama ahead of Michigan? If the answers are yes, then not only are the Big Ten’s odds of getting two teams in awfully low but the SEC’s odds of getting three in might be higher than fans outside of the Southeast would prefer.
Where each conference race stands
The CFP race will obviously be the biggest story moving forward, but while we await the day of an expanded playoff and automatic bids, conference titles still remain huge. Let’s walk through how all 10 races stand heading into the home stretch. All odds below are derived from this week’s SP+ ratings.
SEC
West odds: Alabama 58%, LSU 21%, Ole Miss 21%
East odds: Georgia 66%, Tennessee 34%
Conference odds: Georgia 41%, Alabama 30%, Tennessee 17%, Ole Miss 7%, LSU 6%
Biggest remaining games: Tennessee at Georgia (Nov. 5), Alabama at LSU (Nov. 5), Alabama at Ole Miss (Nov. 12)
The path to Atlanta will be all but decided over the next two weekends. Alabama, coming off a bye week, will face both of its two biggest challengers on the road. The Crimson Tide have not been nearly as consistent as normal on the road over the last couple of seasons, but they’re projected favorites of at least 8.5 points in both games.
Meanwhile, Tennessee’s statement win over Kentucky crystallized the East picture: Next week’s winner in Athens is all but certain to head to Atlanta for the conference championship game.
Big 12
Conference odds: TCU 41%, Kansas State 27%, Texas 18%, Baylor 6%, Oklahoma State 6%, Oklahoma 0.7%
Biggest remaining games: Texas at Kansas State (Nov. 5), Baylor at Oklahoma (Nov. 5), TCU at Texas (Nov. 12), Kansas State at Baylor (Nov. 12), TCU at Baylor (Nov. 19), Oklahoma State at Oklahoma (Nov. 19), Baylor at Texas (Nov. 25).
The Big 12 has been the entertainment sensation of the season, producing points and close games — and on Saturday, one of the most shocking blowouts of the season — virtually nonstop. (It sure seems like that will continue in the coming seasons, too.) It would stand to reason, then, that the drama might only be beginning.
TCU is unbeaten and obviously favored overall, but there’s still a nearly three-in-five chance that someone other than the Horned Frogs will win the title. Will Kansas State earn a rematch with the Frogs? Will Texas learn how to win close games at some point and claw into the title game? Can Baylor, involved in four of the seven games above, catch fire at just the right time? Can Oklahoma State rebound, or are the banged-up Pokes just too exhausted at this point?
Big Ten
1:30
Paul Finebaum gives his top four teams as well as a team knocking on the door of the playoff.
East odds: Ohio State 65%, Michigan 35%
West odds: Illinois 69%, Purdue 27%, Iowa 1.5%, Wisconsin 1.5%, Minnesota 1.0%
Conference odds: Ohio State 55%, Michigan 28%, Illinois 12%, Purdue 4%
Biggest remaining games: Iowa at Purdue (Nov. 5), Purdue at Illinois (Nov. 12), Illinois at Michigan (Nov. 19), Michigan at Ohio State (Nov. 26)
With both Ohio State and Michigan having vanquished Penn State, the East is officially a two-team race. The week before these teams’ Rivalry Week matchup, they both face tricky tests — Michigan must get into a rock fight with Illinois, while Ohio State has to prevent a track meet with Maryland — but odds are high that they will both be 11-0 when they meet in Columbus.
In a West division that is more dire than normal, technically almost everyone still has a shot: Even Nebraska still has a 0.3% chance. But Illinois is the clear front-runner, both because of a lead over the field — the Illini are 4-1, Purdue is 3-2, and everyone else is 2-3 or 1-4 — and because they are the division’s best team. When the school hired Bret Bielema last season, I openly wondered if he would be able to pull off the Big Burly Manball routine better than his divisional peers; granted, those peers appear to have fallen into a collective funk this season, but Bielema is poised to snare a division title in just his second year. (And all of this could fall apart if they lose to Purdue in two weeks.)
ACC
Atlantic odds: Clemson 99.5%, Syracuse 0.5%
Coastal odds: North Carolina 96%, Georgia Tech 1.6%, Duke 1.4%, Miami 0.9%
Conference odds: Clemson 68%, North Carolina 31%
Biggest* remaining games: Georgia Tech at North Carolina (Nov. 19). In this case, it’s more «least small» than «big.»
The ACC is not much for quality division races this year. (Frankly, as Saturday’s games and the conference’s average SP+ rating would attest, it’s not much for quality of any kind at the moment. Sorry, that was mean.) The only way Clemson loses the Atlantic is if the Tigers lose at home to both Louisville and Miami and reeling Syracuse wins out against Florida State at home and Pitt, Wake Forest and Boston College on the road. Congrats in advance to Clemson.
With North Carolina leading both Duke and Miami by two games and holding the tiebreaker over both, the Tar Heels’ title path is almost as clear. They are just 37th in SP+ and lost handily to the only opponent they’ve faced ranked higher than 40th (45-32 to Notre Dame), but, well, the Coastal isn’t good.
Pac-12
Conference odds: Oregon 39%, UCLA 26%, Utah 18%, USC 17%
Biggest remaining games: Utah at Oregon (Nov. 19), USC at UCLA (Nov. 19)
Technically, both Oregon State and Washington are only a game out of second place, both get shots at Oregon, and both have a chance — 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively — but the four front-runners are clear. We’ll stick with them for now. Oregon leads the way at 5-0 in conference play, while the other three teams have each suffered one loss to another contender. This is a dynamite race, one magnified by the conference’s decision to ditch divisions. Oregon would have been a heavy favorite to reach the title game if the North division still existed, but now the Ducks still have work to do to get to Las Vegas. Nov. 19 is enormous out West.
American
Conference odds: Cincinnati 49%, UCF 27%, Tulane 22%, Houston 9%, East Carolina 5%, SMU 2%
Biggest remaining games: Houston at SMU (Nov. 5), ECU at Cincinnati (Nov. 11), UCF at Tulane (Nov. 12), SMU at Tulane (Nov. 17), Houston at ECU (Nov. 19), Tulane at Cincinnati (Nov. 26)
Despite Saturday’s exciting loss to UCF, Cincinnati remains the overall favorite, thanks in part to the fact that three of the Bearcats’ final four regular-season AAC games are at home. Tulane has two big games at home, too, and they’re made even bigger by the end-of-season trip to Cincinnati. Meanwhile, the other primary favorite, UCF, has played its worst and best games of the year in the last two weeks. The Knights could either catch fire or fall apart; neither would be a complete surprise. (The former is more likely than the latter, however.)
Sun Belt
East odds: Coastal Carolina 57%, Appalachian State 30%, Marshall 5%, Georgia Southern 3%, Old Dominion 3%, Georgia State 2%
West odds: Troy 67%, South Alabama 22%, Southern Miss 10%
Conference odds: Coastal Carolina 32%, Troy 28%, Appalachian State 20%, South Alabama 10%, Southern Miss 4%, Marshall 3%, Georgia Southern 1.5%, Old Dominion 1.4%, Georgia State 0.8%
Biggest remaining games: Appalachian State at Coastal Carolina (Nov. 3), Appalachian State at Marshall (Nov. 12), Southern Miss at Coastal Carolina (Nov. 12), South Alabama at Southern Miss (Nov. 19), Appalachian State at Georgia Southern (Nov. 26)
There are 13 teams eligible for the Sun Belt title, nine still have at least a 1% shot at the crown, and no one has even a one-in-three chance to win it. Buckle up.
Remember all the huge games App State played at home earlier this season? The wild Week 1 loss to North Carolina? The Week 3 Hail Mary win over Troy? The blown lead against James Madison in Week 4? They were incredibly fun and helped to define the first month of the season; they also produced a backlog of road trips — three in the final four weeks of the season. That hurts their East odds, but it assures they will have a role to play in who wins, starting with Thursday night’s trip to Coastal.
In the West, Troy leads South Alabama and Southern Miss by a half-game each but boasts tiebreaker wins over both. If the Trojans win a toss-up at Louisiana this Saturday, they will have cleared their biggest remaining hurdle.
Conference USA
Conference odds: UTSA 64%, North Texas 24%, Western Kentucky 7%, Florida Atlantic 3%, Rice 1.4%
Biggest remaining games: UTSA at UAB (Nov. 5), North Texas at UAB (Nov. 12), UTSA at Rice (Nov. 19), Rice at North Texas (Nov. 26)
Technically only one team has been eliminated from C-USA contention, and five teams have between a 0.1% and 0.4% chance at the title. But two teams stand out from the pack a bit. UTSA and North Texas are a combined 8-1 in conference play (the only defeat: UNT’s loss to UTSA in a Week 8 thriller), and they’re a combined 3-0 against the two teams a game back in the standings (WKU and FAU). There will be plenty of opportunities for a slip-up, but right now signs point to a UTSA-UNT rematch for the C-USA championship. Hopefully it will be as good as their first battle.
Mountain West
Mountain odds: Boise State 87%, Wyoming 12%, Utah State 0.6%
West odds: Fresno State 66%, San Jose State 28%, UNLV 4%, San Diego State 2%
Conference odds: Boise State 58%, Fresno State 25%, San Jose State 10%, Wyoming 6%, UNLV 0.9%, San Diego State 0.7%
Biggest remaining games: Fresno State at UNLV (Nov. 11), SJSU at SDSU (Nov. 12), Boise State at Wyoming (Nov. 19), Utah State at Boise State (Nov. 25)
What a turnaround it’s been for Boise State. The Broncos were 2-2 and appeared lifeless following a 27-10 loss at UTEP, and coach Andy Avalos made what appeared to be a panic move, firing offensive coordinator Tim Plough and replacing him with analyst (and former Boise head coach) Dirk Koetter. They’re 4-0 since, scoring at least 35 points in three of the wins, and they’re well in charge of the MWC again.
Granted, they’re in charge of one of the worst iterations of the MWC we’ve seen — eight of the 12 teams rank in the triple digits in SP+, and its average rating is worse than that of every conference but the MAC — but the ring would look pretty all the same. Only Wyoming could get in the way of Boise State’s Mountain division crown. In the West, things are blurrier, but Fresno’s win over San Jose State looms large.
MAC
West odds: Toledo 91%, Ball State 5%, Western Michigan 4%
East odds: Buffalo 74%, Ohio 16%, Kent State 6%, Bowling Green 3%
Conference odds: Toledo 63%, Buffalo 25%, Ohio 5%, Ball State 2%, Kent State 2%, WMU 2%, Bowling Green 1%
Biggest remaining games: Buffalo at Ohio (Nov. 1), Ball State at Toledo (Nov. 8), Bowling Green at Ohio (Nov. 15), Toledo at WMU (Nov. 25), Kent State at Buffalo (Nov. 26)
If Boise State hasn’t produced the biggest midseason turnaround in the Group of 5, Buffalo has. Maurice Linguist’s Bulls began the season 0-3 and fell to 119th in SP+ with losses to not only Maryland and Coastal Carolina but also Holy Cross of the FCS. In their last five games, however, they’re unbeaten and overachieving against SP+ projections by an average of 18.5 points per game. They unleashed a ferocious comeback to beat Toledo on Oct. 22, and they head into MACtion Month with a one-game lead over both Bowling Green (whom they blew out on Oct. 8) and Ohio (whom they’ll play Tuesday night). Slipping up against the Bobcats would make things blurrier, but the Bulls would still be the likely favorite.
In the West, the picture is clearer, though Toledo’s loss to Buffalo kept Ball State and Western Michigan in the race a bit longer. It looks like we’ll have a Toledo-Buffalo rematch in Detroit, and as with UTSA-UNT, hopefully the sequel is equal to the original.
Enough stalling. Time for the most important question of the season: Will Kansas bowl?
The «There are too many bowls!» crowd might act as if it doesn’t care, but each season produces a few stirring runs at six wins and bowl eligibility. To give you an idea of where things stand in that regard, here are the teams that have between a 20% and 80% chance, per SP+, of getting to six wins.
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Pitt 78.8%
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Kansas 76.3%. The Jayhawks’ chances of bowling for the first time since 2008 have taken a hit in recent weeks with three straight losses. They are now 5-3, but they’re projected underdogs, with win probabilities between 20% and 41%, in every remaining game. They’re just one upset away, and the odds are in their favor of pulling it off, but it will take an upset.
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Louisiana 75.9%
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Iowa 75.0%
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San Diego State 74.7%
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Florida 74.6%
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UNLV 73.6%
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Wisconsin 73.5%. The 4-4 Badgers haven’t missed a bowl since 2001, and each of their last four games are projected to be within a touchdown. They’ve got to snag two of them to keep the streak alive.
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Missouri 69.6%. The Tigers’ bowl odds were in the 30-35% range two weeks ago, but wins over Vanderbilt and No. 25 South Carolina changed their trajectory a good amount. They’ll still likely have to beat either Kentucky or Arkansas to get over the line, though.
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BYU 67.0%
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Army 65.7%
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Miami 64.5%
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Texas A&M 63.0%. Jimbo Fisher’s horrifically disappointing Aggies are 3-5 and have lost four straight. But they’ll beat UMass, and they can still pretty easily win two out of three against Florida (64% win probability), Auburn (61%) and LSU (49%). Hope is not lost.
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Miami (Ohio) 56.7%
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Florida Atlantic 54.1%
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Bowling Green 53.1%. The 4-4 Falcons haven’t bowled since winning the MAC in 2015. Winning at home against Western Michigan and Kent State in the first two weeks of MACtion would be the most direct path to six wins.
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Ball State 52.3%
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Texas Tech 49.9%
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UTEP 36.4%
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Rice 35.2%. Rice hasn’t bowled since 2014, and the Owls’ odds were looking pretty good until Saturday’s shocking blowout loss to Charlotte.
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Kent State 26.5%
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Michigan State 25.9%. Not exactly what the school was looking for when it signed Mel Tucker to that shocking contract extension last year.
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Florida International 25.2%. This would be an incredible story. The Golden Panthers went 1-16 in Butch Davis’ last two seasons and looked dreadful during a 2-4 start under Mike MacIntyre this year. But they walloped Charlotte, then took down Louisiana Tech in overtime to get to 4-4. There’s still a chance!
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UConn 24.0%. This would be the most incredible story. The Huskies have bowled once since 2010 and went a ghastly 4-32 in their previous three seasons. But Jim Mora has brought them to a lively 4-5, and if they hadn’t blown a lead against Ball State two games ago, they would be just about over the finish line. They’ll have to win two of three against UMass, Liberty and Army. Unlikely, but not impossible.
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Utah State 22.6%
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Iowa State 21.2%
Who won the Heisman this week?
We’re attempting an experiment this season: What happens if I award the Heisman Trophy every single week of the season and dole out weekly points, F1 style (in this case, 10 points for first place, nine for second, and so on)? How will this Heisman race play out, and how different will the result be from the actual Heisman voting?
Here’s who won the Heisman this week:
1. J.T. Tuimoloau, Ohio State (6 tackles, 2 sacks among 3 tackles for loss, 1 forced fumble, 1 fumble recovery, 2 interceptions, 1 breakup, 1 pick-six vs. Penn State)
2. Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State (10 catches for 185 yards)
3. Bo Nix, Oregon (27-for-35 for 412 yards, three TDs and two INTs, plus 59 rushing yards and three TDs vs. California)
4. Zach Charbonnet, UCLA (21 carries for 198 yards and three touchdowns, plus 61 receiving yards vs. Stanford)
5. C.J. Stroud, Ohio State (26-for-33 for 354 yards and one touchdown)
6. Hendon Hooker, Tennessee (19-for-25 for 245 yards and three touchdowns, plus a rushing touchdown vs. Kentucky)
7. KJ Jefferson, Arkansas (16-for-24 for 234 yards and one touchdown, plus 45 rushing yards and two touchdowns vs. Auburn)
8. Drake Maye, UNC (34-for-44 for 380 yards and four touchdowns, plus 61 rushing yards vs. Pitt)
9. Caleb Williams, USC (31-for-45 for 411 yards and five touchdowns vs. Arizona)
10. Blake Corum, Michigan (33 carries for 177 yards and one touchdown, plus a receiving touchdown vs. Michigan State)
A lot of usual suspects (Stroud, Hooker, Nix, Williams, Corum, Maye) had lovely weeks, but the top two players on the list won a huge game for the nation’s most likely CFP team. Harrison didn’t just catch 10 passes — he caught 10 passes on 12 targets, with 10 first downs, four coming on third- or fourth-and-long. He was the lone offensive threat Penn State just couldn’t contain. And he was the second-best player in an Ohio State uniform.
Defensive stats from before the turn of the century are obviously pretty blurry, but here’s what we can say for certain: J.T. Tuimoloau is the only FBS defender in the past 20 years to record a defensive touchdown, two sacks, two interceptions, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery in a single game. UCLA’s Keisean Lucier-South (2018) and Appalachian State’s Demetrius Taylor (2019) did all of the above but with only one interception. Notre Dame’s Maurice Crum (2007) did it all but with just one sack. (This says nothing of the fact that Tuimoloau also tipped another ball that ended up intercepted by Zach Harrison.)
Penn State’s Sean Clifford had a solid overall day against the Buckeyes, throwing for 371 yards and three scores and helping the Nittany Lions produce far more points (31) and yards (482) than anyone else has on the Buckeyes this year. But he also took three sacks and committed four turnovers; Tuimoloau was involved in two of the former and three of the latter. If you’re a defensive lineman and you figure out how to accomplish some combination of stats that Ndamukong Suh didn’t, it’s safe to say you did something Heisman-worthy. Picking No. 1 was easy this week.
Some other players earned honorable mention shoutouts:
• Quinshon Judkins, Ole Miss (34 rushes for 205 yards and one touchdown vs. Texas A&M)
• Antoine Green, UNC (10 catches for 180 yards and two touchdowns vs. Pitt)
• Deuce Vaughn, Kansas State (22 carries for 158 yards and a touchdown, plus 18 receiving yards and a touchdown vs. Oklahoma State)
• Max Duggan, TCU (16-for-28 for 341 yards, three TDs and one INT vs. West Virginia)
• Quincy Riley, Louisville (3 tackles, 2 interceptions, 1 pick-six vs. Wake Forest)
• Parker Washington, Penn State (11 catches for 179 yards and one touchdown vs. Ohio State)
• Brock Bowers, Georgia (five catches for 154 yards and a touchdown vs. Florida)
And a special nod to the San Jose State duo of Cade Hall and Viliami Fehoko, who combined for 17 tackles and seven sacks among 8.5 tackles for loss against Nevada.
Through nine weeks, here are the overall point totals:
1. C.J. Stroud, Ohio State (35 points)
2. Bo Nix, Oregon (29 points)
3. Hendon Hooker, Tennessee (25 points)
4. Jalon Daniels, Kansas (24 points)
5. Caleb Williams, USC (23 points)
T6. Drake Maye, North Carolina (17 points)
T6. Dorian Thompson-Robinson, UCLA (17 points)
T6. Bryce Young, Alabama (17 points)
9. Spencer Sanders, Oklahoma State (16 points)
10. Stetson Bennett, Georgia (15 points)
The order isn’t quite the same, but this encompasses most of the current betting favorites. It also reinforces two inklings I’ve had recently. First, it’s really difficult to consistently stand out as anything but a quarterback. Plenty of non-QBs have won the weekly Heismans this year, but all 10 of the above players are quarterbacks, and no non-QB has more than 10 points.
Second, Hooker appears to increasingly be the Heisman front-runner at the moment — DraftKings currently lists his odds at -110, equivalent to a 52% chance — despite Stroud producing better overall stats for a better overall team per SP+ and plenty of other sources. Stroud (+190, or implied odds of 34%) remains first in Total QBR, and his career Total QBR rating is second to only that of Tua Tagovailoa. Stroud’s supporting cast has plenty of huge names in it, but we didn’t punish Joe Burrow or Bryce Young for that, so I’m not sure why Stroud’s stock would be falling so far behind Hooker’s.
Saying this does nothing to diminish what Hooker is accomplishing, obviously. He’s near the top of this list too. But Stroud has been the most consistently awesome quarterback in the sport this season.
My 10 favorite games of the weekend
1. San Jose State 35, Nevada 28
this wins for #6 #ClimbTheMountain | #AllSpartans pic.twitter.com/Pu5nxkPOXv
— San José State Football (@SanJoseStateFB) October 30, 2022
What an emotional night in San Jose. In their first game after SJSU’s Camdan McWright was killed in a scooter accident, the Spartans honored their fallen teammate before the game, then rallied for him late. Down 14 in the third quarter, they finished the game on a 28-7 run, pulling ahead with a pair of Kairee Robinson touchdowns in the final seven minutes. Alii Matau’s interception with 33 seconds secured the win.
2. Holy Cross 53, Fordham 52 (OT). Holy Cross remains unbeaten, but Fordham and its prolific offense provided both a massive test and one of the funkiest win probability charts you’ll ever see.
After a pair of early runs — 14-3 for Holy Cross, 28-7 for Fordham — the Crusaders had to tie the game on three separate occasions in the fourth quarter. Jalen Coker’s 15-yard catch from Matthew Sluka sent the game to overtime, and after the Rams struck first, Holy Cross decided enough was enough. After Sluka’s 9-yard scoring pass to Justin Shorter, Ayir Asante ran in a 2-point conversion for the win. Total yards in this one: 1,106.
3. UCF 25, No. 20 Cincinnati 21. RJ Harvey’s spinning 17-yard touchdown in the final minute ended Cincy’s 19-game AAC winning streak and put UCF squarely back in the conference title race.
4. No. 15 Ole Miss 31, Texas A&M 28. A&M freshman Conner Weigman threw for 338 yards and four TDs, but the Rebels rushed for 390 and held off a late Aggies charge.
5. East Carolina 27, BYU 24. No one led by more than seven at any point in this Friday night affair, and after losing to NC State on a missed field goal, the Pirates got one back with a 33-yarder from Andrew Conrad at the buzzer.
6. No. 7 TCU 41, West Virginia 31. Do you like big plays? I do! TCU scored on plays of 75, 55, 51, 30 and 29 yards — the last of which came with just 20 seconds left — to move to 8-0 on the season.
7. Florida International 42, Louisiana Tech 34 (2OT). After a dismal start to the season, FIU is 4-4 after outlasting the Bulldogs. Chase Gabriel’s 28-yard field goal sent the game to OT, and Lexington Joseph’s touchdown plunge provided the winning points.
8. Fresno State 32, San Diego State 28. Welcome back, Jake Haener. Fresno State’s veteran QB had missed four games with injury but returned to lead an 18-point comeback. Fifteen of those points came in the last 69 seconds.
9. No. 10 USC 45, Arizona 37. USC’s defense didn’t magically right itself in the bye week, but the Trojans still have Caleb Williams, who narrowly outdueled Jayden de Laura with 411 passing yards and five touchdowns.
10. Miami 14, Virginia 12. Did I enjoy what I watched of this game? Absolutely not. It set offensive football back decades. But watching colleague Andrea Adelson slowly lose it while taking it all in was certainly a unique form of entertainment.
OVERTIME
Miami 6
Virginia 6Send help
— Andrea Adelson (@aadelsonESPN) October 29, 2022
SECOND OVERTIME BABY 9-9
— Andrea Adelson (@aadelsonESPN) October 29, 2022
THIRD OVERTIME BABY
— Andrea Adelson (@aadelsonESPN) October 29, 2022
Garcia just threw an INT in the end zone. Virginia up. WILL ANYONE GET IN THE END ZONE
— Andrea Adelson (@aadelsonESPN) October 29, 2022
FOURTH OVERTIME BABY
— Andrea Adelson (@aadelsonESPN) October 29, 2022
Jake Garcia wins the game for Miami. We shall never speak of this game again
— Andrea Adelson (@aadelsonESPN) October 29, 2022