When the College Football Playoff selection committee meets Monday for the first time this season, it will have several things to debate, starting at No. 1. Georgia, Tennessee and Ohio State each have a strong case.
It doesn’t stop there, though.
The selection committee also must determine who’s No. 4, where Michigan, Clemson and one-loss Alabama are in the mix. Then there’s the matter of setting the board for other playoff hopefuls.
The first of six rankings will be announced Tuesday (7 p.m. ET, ESPN), and while the list can and will change as the season continues to unfold, the committee’s initial top 25 has relevance. According to ESPN’s Stats & Information Group, 18 of 32 teams that eventually made the CFP were ranked in the initial top four. Seven of those teams (2015 Alabama, 2016 Clemson, 2017 Alabama, 2018 Clemson, 2019 LSU, 2020 Alabama and 2021 Georgia) went on to win the national title.
The selection committee now has nine weeks of résumés and game film to evaluate. It has every game and statistic at its fingertips, thanks to CFP-issued iPads and binders. When the committee meets this week at the Gaylord Texan Resort in Grapevine, Texas, here’s what members will consider as they vote through electronic secret ballots for the first time:
Making the case for No. 1
Case for: The Vols entered Week 9 with the best résumé in the country, ranking No. 1 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric. Tennessee’s Oct. 15 win against Alabama is still the best in the country, and the Vols’ 40-13 win at LSU on Oct. 8 has aged well, as the two-loss Tigers should be a CFP Top 25 team Tuesday night. Tennessee should have three wins against the committee’s top 25 after beating Kentucky on Saturday. The selection committee will say repeatedly it does not look ahead, but if Tennessee isn’t No. 1 this week, it will be next week if the Vols can win at Georgia in one of the most impactful games remaining this season. Tennessee’s offense, led by Heisman hopeful quarterback Hendon Hooker and receiver Jalin Hyatt, has been one of the nation’s best. In years past, the committee has been wowed by the combination of star performers on a prolific offense — even when a defense has been average at best. The Vols have scored at least 30 points in 10 straight games, the longest streak in program history.
Case against: It starts with pass defense, or lack thereof. The Vols entered Saturday ranked last in the Power 5 in pass defense and second-to-last nationally. They allowed at least 300 passing yards to Florida (453), LSU (300) and Alabama (455). Beyond that, it’s nitpicking, but the nonconference schedule doesn’t include any wins against Power 5 opponents over .500. It does include a drubbing of FCS school UT-Martin.
Case for: Eye test, eye test, eye test. The Bulldogs are the defending national champs for a reason. Georgia entered Week 9 ranked second in the nation in scoring defense, allowing just 9.1 points per game, and it hasn’t allowed a first-quarter touchdown this season. Its résumé hinges on the dominant 49-3 season-opening beatdown of Oregon, and apart from an ugly close win against Mizzou, Georgia has won in convincing fashion and has been one of the nation’s most complete teams. The committee has the ability to put Georgia and Tennessee side-by-side on a flat-screen computer and compare them statistically, and Georgia ranks in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, while the Vols do not.
Case against: The Bulldogs entered Saturday ranked No. 87 in strength of schedule — behind even Ohio State (No. 83) and well behind Tennessee (No. 17). The win against Oregon is the lone résumé highlight. The only other win against a Power 5 opponent over .500 was against South Carolina, and that was further devalued Saturday night after the Gamecocks were beaten soundly at home by Mizzou. Only three of Georgia’s wins came against teams with winning records, and that includes FCS Samford. The Gamecocks recently snuck into the Associated Press Top 25, but will probably drop out and be excluded from the committee’s first ranking as well. A win against Tennessee on Saturday would be a huge boost to Georgia’s résumé, as it would be one of the best wins in the country.
Case for: The consistent dominance against lesser competition has produced eye-popping numbers. The Buckeyes entered Week 9 having defeated their opponents by an average of 34.7 points per game, best in the country. Ohio State entered Saturday leading the country with an average of 7.77 yards per play — just slightly above Tennessee (7.51). The prolific offense, led by quarterback C.J. Stroud, has continued to find playmakers in spite of injuries to starters, and the defense has improved vastly under first-year coordinator Jim Knowles. Remember, there are former coaches on the committee who know the difference in depth and talent between the Buckeyes and fringe contenders, but they also want to know: Who did you beat? The road win at Penn State on Saturday gave the Buckeyes something they desperately needed heading into the first CFP ranking — their first win against a top 25 team. That’s assuming, of course, the committee ranks the two-loss Nittany Lions.
Case against: The Buckeyes’ strength of schedule was No. 83 entering Week 9, and Ohio State has only two wins against Power 5 teams with winning records after beating Penn State (6-2) on Saturday. While the Buckeyes still managed to defeat the Nittany Lions by double digits, it wasn’t pretty for most of the game. With injured running back Miyan Williams out for most of the game, Ohio State struggled to get its ground game going, and Stroud wasn’t at his best until the Buckeyes needed him most. It’s still unclear how much the season-opening win against three-loss unranked Notre Dame will help Ohio State, but it’s clearly not the top-five win it appeared to be entering September.
Making the case for No. 4
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Michigan State can’t handle the snap cleanly on the punt and Michigan capitalizes with the Blake Corum touchdown.
Case for: This isn’t a bonus for Michigan, but fans should know: Michigan athletic director Warde Manuel is entering his first season as a committee member and will be recused when the group is discussing and voting for Michigan. He couldn’t vote for the Wolverines if he wanted to — it’s shaded in gray and impossible to click on his computer screen. When he returns to the room, he will see on the big screen what happened. While he’s gone, the committee will discuss how Michigan has been one of the most consistent teams in the country. The Wolverines entered Saturday’s game against rival Michigan State ranked in the top 13 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The Wolverines have one of the most productive running games in the FBS and check the star power box with running back Blake Corum. Michigan has also been winning with its pass defense and entered Saturday leading the Big Ten with 24 sacks. Michigan’s best wins are against Maryland and Penn State, which are both 6-2 and could be CFP Top 25 teams on Tuesday.
Case against: When the selection committee is comparing teams with similar records, the strength of schedule becomes a substantive part of the discussion, and the Wolverines entered Week 9 with the No. 82 strength of schedule. It was weighed down by a nonconference lineup that didn’t feature a Power 5 opponent and included Colorado State, Hawaii and UConn — teams that each have at least five losses. The selection committee also compares common opponents, and it will see that Michigan handled Penn State in more convincing fashion than Ohio State did, but that the Nittany Lions were also a tougher out on their home field. In similar fashion, Ohio State had a more convincing win against Iowa, but Michigan faced the Hawkeyes on the road. The committee won’t look ahead, but isn’t naïve — this particular debate will eventually settle itself on the field.
Case for: The undefeated Tigers could have three wins against CFP Top 25 teams if the committee ranks NC State along with Wake Forest and Syracuse — opponents that have combined for an 18-7 record. Clemson entered its bye week No. 2 in the country in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric — trailing only Tennessee. The Tigers continue to find ways to win, even when overcoming adversity. Although quarterback DJ Uiagalelei was benched in the win against Syracuse, his overall performance to that point was a major reason Clemson reasserted itself as the team to beat in the ACC’s Atlantic Division. The playmakers around him also improved from a year ago, and when the defensive line is healthy and intact, it looks like one of the best in the country.
Case against: Clemson’s best wins have taken a few hits. Syracuse lost at home to unranked Notre Dame on Saturday and Wake Forest turned the ball over eight times in an embarrassing 48-21 loss to unranked Louisville. On Thursday, NC State was fortunate to beat a dreadful Virginia Tech team 22-21. Clemson has yet to put it all together for four quarters, trailing at one point in half of its games. The Tigers needed double overtime to beat Wake Forest, a come-from-behind win against unranked Florida State and overcame a four-turnover performance against Syracuse. Clemson simply hasn’t looked as dominant as other contenders and is No. 13 in the country in scoring margin (17.3 ppg) — behind Ohio State, Georgia, Michigan, Tennessee and Alabama. In 2014, Florida State was undefeated, but the selection committee dropped the Seminoles from No. 1 to No. 3 behind one-loss teams because FSU kept winning nail-biters. Jimbo Fisher was livid, but it was a lesson that undefeated doesn’t necessarily equate to being better than a one-loss team in the eyes of the committee. That’s what Clemson could be facing.
Case for: There is such a thing as a «good loss» in the committee meeting room, and of the one-loss contenders, Alabama’s loss to Tennessee is the least-damaging because it was a close loss on the road to a highly ranked team and didn’t knock the Tide out of the SEC race. Alabama still has the reigning Heisman Trophy winner in quarterback Bryce Young, and despite fewer snaps because of an injury and more than double the number of drops from a year ago (17), his completion percentage is nearly identical (74.6% compared to 75% in 2021) when the drops are counted as catches in both years. The Tide also entered their bye week ranked No. 4 in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric. The dominant win against Mississippi State showed how good the Tide can be when they limit penalties, the receivers make plays and the secondary is aggressive.
Case against: For the majority of the season, Alabama has looked vulnerable. The offensive line hasn’t always gotten the push it needs, the receivers haven’t been consistently dependable and the secondary has gotten burned. Penalties have also been an issue (17 against the Vols, 10 against Arkansas and 15 against Texas). Alabama’s three best wins — against Texas, Arkansas and Mississippi State — have come against currently unranked opponents with at least three losses each.
Case for: Don’t dismiss the brand. In the very first season of the CFP, one-loss TCU was ranked No. 3 in late November. The challenge isn’t getting there as much as it is staying there. TCU ultimately sank to No. 6 in what remains one of the committee’s most controversial decisions. This is one of the nation’s most explosive offenses, having scored 12 touchdowns of 50-plus yards, the most in the FBS. Quarterback Max Duggan has thrown only two interceptions this season and has accounted for at least three touchdowns in seven straight games. The Horned Frogs are 8-0 for only the fifth time in 20 seasons, and they entered Week 9 ranked No. 3 in the country in ESPN’s Strength of Record metric, trailing only Tennessee and Clemson. The selection committee will still respect TCU’s four straight wins against Big 12 opponents with winning records even though they won’t all be ranked.
Case against: TCU is No. 44 in the country in defensive efficiency. Saturday’s win against West Virginia was the third straight time TCU has allowed 21 points in the first half. The nonconference schedule also is an issue, as TCU’s wins were against Colorado, FCS Tarleton and SMU, teams that have a combined record of 10-12.
Making the case for teams outside the top four
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Bo Nix makes a nice move for an Oregon touchdown.
Case for: Oregon is the only team left in the Pac-12 that’s undefeated in conference play and it’s clearly a better team than it was in Week 1. With Saturday’s win at Cal, Oregon now has won seven straight games since its season-opening loss to Georgia. During that span, the Ducks have scored at least 40 points, tied with Ohio State for the longest streak in the FBS. Oregon is also averaging 556.1 yards and 48 points during its seven-game winning streak. The Ducks’ win against UCLA is one of the most impressive in the country. Quarterback Bo Nix, who transferred from Auburn, became the third Pac-12 quarterback over the past 25 years with 20 passing touchdowns and 10 rushing touchdowns in a season. While there’s no sugarcoating the loss to Georgia, the selection committee would at least consider that it was the Ducks’ opener with a first-time head coach in Dan Lanning, and they were facing the defending national champions.
Case against: There’s no loss in the country more damning than the Ducks’ season-opening 49-3 throttling by Georgia. The selection committee could view this as the gap that exists between Oregon and a top-four team, depending on how much credit it gives the Ducks for their improvement since that day. The résumé is also an issue, as Oregon’s win against UCLA is its only one against a ranked opponent, and UCLA is the only team it has faced that currently has a winning record. If Oregon were to finish as a top-four team, it would earn the dubious distinction of becoming the first semifinalist in playoff history with the most lopsided loss, according to ESPN’s Stats & Information Group. Previously, Notre Dame’s 24-point loss (34-10) to Clemson in 2020 ACC title game (Dec. 19, 2020) was the worst loss by a CFP team. Outside of a conference championship game, worst margin of defeat for a team to make the playoff was Georgia’s 23-point loss (40-17) at Auburn in 2017.
Case for: The selection committee has welcomed Lincoln Riley into the playoff with an exciting, high-flying offense and subpar defense before. It happened in 2018 when he was at Oklahoma. It could happen again if USC finishes as a one-loss Pac-12 champion and there are upsets in the other Power 5 conference races. The door would open if Clemson lost at Notre Dame, or to rival South Carolina — and especially in the ACC title game. It would also help if TCU stumbled down the stretch, and the SEC only has one team. Bottom line: USC needs some help, but still has some hope. The Trojans’ only loss was a close one to a top-25 Utah team.
Case against: USC doesn’t have one win over a ranked opponent. The Trojans only have one win against a team with a winning record, thanks to 6-2 Oregon State. Every other opponent has at least four losses. Schedule strength will be an issue, but if Notre Dame continues to win, that could help boost a nonconference lineup that includes Rice and Stanford. While the selection committee has overlooked Riley’s porous defense before, it will still compare how USC has fared to the other contenders, and right now, the Trojans are No. 63 in defensive efficiency behind most other contenders — including Utah.
Case for: UCLA’s six-game winning streak to start the season included wins against 6-2 Washington and defending Pac-12 champion Utah, legitimizing the Bruins as a possible playoff contender. If they can finish as a one-loss conference champion, defeating USC along the way and Oregon in the title game, UCLA could have arguably the best chance of any of the league’s current one-loss teams. UCLA lost a 45-30 game at Autzen Stadium, one of the toughest places to play in the league. A second shot at the Ducks in the Pac-12 title game would give the Bruins another win against a ranked opponent and show the committee they were the better team when it mattered the most.
Case against: Even if UCLA finishes as a one-loss conference champion, its nonconference schedule could hold it back. The Bruins beat Bowling Green, Alabama State and South Alabama — and the latter was a narrow 32-31 win. Alabama’s narrow win at Texas is more impressive, and Clemson has better opportunities against Notre Dame and South Carolina. It would depend on who UCLA is being compared to, as TCU’s nonconference schedule also is weak, along with Michigan’s.
Case for: The Utes’ Oct. 15 win against USC is a step in the right direction, and they still have opportunities to boost their résumé, starting with the Nov. 19 trip to Oregon. If Utah can earn a spot in the conference championship game, it will face another ranked opponent, but would still need some chaos in the other Power 5 conference championship games to garner serious consideration. The selection committee considers injuries to key players and know the Utes found a way to win at Washington State on Thursday night without injured starting quarterback Cameron Rising.
Case against: Just because a two-loss team hasn’t made the playoff doesn’t mean it can’t or won’t happen, but when the first ranking is released, Utah should have a significant hill to climb. The committee is judging these teams solely on what they have done to this point, and Utah is clinging to a 43-42 win against USC to impress the committee. Utah’s defense struggled mightily in that game and its running game was ineffective for the most part. So far, it’s not enough to overcome the season-opening loss to Florida and the defeat at UCLA — and it won’t be unless Utah wins the Pac-12 and there are major upsets in the Big Ten and SEC.
Case for: The Tigers still have a chance to win the SEC. Any team that can do that has a chance to finish in the top four — including one with two losses. LSU had a bye week to prepare for its home game against Alabama, and a win could knock the Tide out of the CFP conversation. If LSU won the SEC West, it would have a chance against either Georgia or Tennessee in the SEC championship game. One of LSU’s two losses was to Tennessee, so the Tigers could potentially have a chance to show the committee how much they have improved since the 40-13 loss to the Vols on Oct. 8. Either way, two top-four wins and an SEC title would ultimately compensate for two losses, and LSU could make CFP history.
Case against: LSU lost to unranked Florida State. Yes, the Seminoles are better this year, and it was a close loss in the season opener, but … it’s something the committee members will at least discuss. LSU also was beaten soundly by Tennessee, and at least right now doesn’t have enough to compensate for it.
